December 7, 2023
Real estate agencies and finance blogs get into the prediction business at the end of each year, with many publishing articles comparing their expectations for the new year with what happened in the current year.
2024 is no different. One such company, Redfin, predicts that the new year could be a great time to reconsider buying a home as the housing market enters into recovery mode.
The End Of The Seller’s Market?
Redfin makes a prediction for 2024 many really want to hear.
“Home prices will fall because supply will rise more than demand.” The lack of supply caused the seller’s market of 2022, and more housing inventory will begin leveling the playing field, so to speak, between buyers and sellers.
In a seller’s market, as the name implies, the homeowner has a great deal of leverage in the negotiation process. They don’t necessarily have to consider options like seller concessions or a lower sale price.
In markets with less competition for a smaller inventory of homes, sellers typically can expect to lose the upper hand. When a buyer’s market comes into the picture, a seller must reconsider their strategy and try to work more closely with an interested buyer.
Home Price Drops In 2024
Under this housing market prediction, house prices could begin falling in the second quarter of 2024. That’s a milestone of sorts, assuming it comes to pass. Sales have declined “since 2012, when the housing market was recovering from the Great Recession, with the exception of a brief period in the first half of 2023.”
Home Sales Higher In 2024?
Redfin predictions for next year include the idea that once Q1 of 2024 has passed, home sales could rise to or above 4 million total in 2024, “up from an annual pace of 3.85 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Sales will continue rising throughout the year; they’ll be on pace for a total of 4.5 million by the fourth quarter.”
The speculation in this area includes the notion that home sales will improve in the new year. After New Year’s Eve 2024, there may be an increase in the affordability of available homes next year, and more house hunters are likely to be tempted into the housing market as a result.
2023 Versus 2024
One factor that is fuelling speculation of a better housing market next year? The momentum of recovery.
2023 didn’t have any despite rates trying to fall lower in fits and starts. Redfin predicts 2024 will be different. Why? Improvements in rates, inventory, and costs are likely (in this prediction) to grow after the start of the new year. Is that momentum possible in 2024? Many believe the answer is yes.
Joe Wallace has been specializing in military and personal finance topics since 1995. His work has appeared on Air Force Television News, The Pentagon Channel, ABC and a variety of print and online publications. He is a 13-year Air Force veteran and a member of the Air Force Public Affairs Alumni Association. He was Managing editor for www.valoans.com for (8) years and is currently the Associate Editor for FHANewsblog.com.
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